In my previous post I looked at what to expect at the 2016 Saratoga meet including how the track plays, which jockeys, trainers and owners can be expected to compete for the meet title and which wagering pools offer the most value. In this post we are going to look at some proven longshot angles to help you in your handicapping and wagering strategy at Saratoga in 2016.
Saratoga has long been known as the “Graveyard of Favorites.” Man ‘o War was upset in the 1919 Sanford Stakes, Secretariat was defeated in the 1973 Whitney Handicap and last year American Pharoah suffered the only loss of his Triple Crown campaign in the Travers Stakes.
These three are among the most prominent horses to suffer defeat at Saratoga but many more have lost over the years and many more will in the future. When a favorite is beaten, especially an odds on favorite like the three mentioned above, the resulting parimutuel returns can be very lucrative.
Favorites have won at a rate of 31% overall the last three years at Saratoga, slightly below the long term rate of 33% across all tracks. Longshots (10/1+) have won 13% of the races during that time. Let’s take a look at which jockeys and trainers have had the most success on longshots as well as which types of races produced the most upsets.